ASU Campus in Payson - Business Buzz Notes

Arizona State University's Vice President of Development, Richard Stanley, was a featured speaker at today's Rim Country Chamber of Commerce Business Buzz meeting. I was fortunate enough to get to sit at his table so I made some other observations as well. These are just my opinions and certainly others, including my boss, will have taken some different things out of the meeting.

1. This is either going to get done in the next year or two or it won't: This isn't going to be some protracted process. The fact is that the low municipal bond rates are definitely a positive factor - the further out you go, the less likely you are to have that, which could blow up the whole process. Therefore, I don't think this is a five year out thing. According to Stanley, they can open the campus one year from the final announcement. Based on that, I think if it's going to happen, it'll happen in 2013, possibly with a May opening.

2. Stanley's not a great public speaker, but is very smart: I didn't think he came across as well in front of the room. He just didn't seem as comfortable. But at the table, you could clearly tell that he knew his stuff. No doubt. 

3. Nobody likes the state legislature: There's an old joke that I'll bend for this. A class of second graders is going around the room telling what their fathers do. They come to little Tommy and he says: "my Dad's a male gigolo. The teacher looks disapprovingly at Tommy and says, "come on now, we know that's not true. Tell the truth." Tommy says, "okay, he's a state legislator." The classroom bullies immediately give him a glare of "we're going to kick your butt later, and every day for the rest of the year." The fact is that no one wants the state legislature to have any hand in their business. Unfortunately, ASU is a public institution. While they are looking to deliver classes at a 1/3 to 1/2 the cost, there still is an element of state funding for each student in this state - that will be factored in as part of the viability of things here. The other kicker - after ASU did the Phoenix campus, the state legislature changed the law so that now they have to approve any new campuses. That's why you'll often see ASU refer to Payson as an extension of existing "programs."

4. This is very unique. This came up early on in the presentation and was explained by Payson Mayor Kenny Evans. This is pretty much a one of a kind project. There are a little bit of similarities with what ASU did in Phoenix, and ASU is also looking at the possibility of campus in Lake Havasu. But this is a new model, especially with the private aspect.

5. When you see Havasu & ASU mentioned, don't worry. Stanley was emphatic that it's not an either or proposition when it comes to Havasu and Payson. They are pursuing multiple locations.

6. The structure is complex. This has been put together in a way where the municipal entity, the Town of Payson, will not be on the hook for anything. The campus will be its own entity, with a private development segment. (A large Chinese company has already preliminarily agreed to come here.) A lot of lawyers got consulted with in the process, but it's been put together in a manner to do this. 

7. Manufacturers are more interested in coming here. The town has been in contact with at least 5 companies interested in coming here because of the possible campus. 

8. Stanley understands that summer may be where it is at. He stated that they think this campus may be busiest in summer, with an influx of summer school students from ASU. That statement to me shows that they are on top of things. I really see that happening and was glad to see him projecting that.

9. Payson is lucky to have Kenny Evans as Mayor. The complexity of this thing could be overwhelming to a lesser person, but Kenny is right on top of things and leading the charge. Also, it has to be remembered that this wouldn't be on the table right now if not for Payson getting Blue Ridge water, a partially completed project that will be finished in the near future. When Evans took over as Mayor, Payson was still in water wars with Star Valley. He solved all of that. 

10. Business is excited. It was a packed, overflowing crowd for this meeting. An ASU campus here clearly would be a game changer and the business committee knows it. Folks here want this to happen and are very supportive of the efforts.

11. Forest Service has to make things happen. One key component yet is the forest service land that would be obtained. Unfortunately, there are a ton of procedures that have to be followed in that case. The Environmental Asessment (EA) is being worked on as we speak, but it's still an obstacle for all of this to occur.

One thought to the negative that I can't help but consider...will this become Payson's 21st century railroad? If you go back to the latter part of the 19th century and early part of the 20th century, this country was all abuzz at various times because of a potential railroad. It never happened, with the area not being connected by a main line road until the Beeline Highway was paved from Phoenix to Payson in 1958. If this deal is not able to be completed, this clearly would become the modern equivalent. That "oh what could have been" moment. 

I'm optimistic that this will happen, but by the same token still somewhat on pins and needles about it. Like the rest of the business community, I'm all for it. And as a 30 year old in Rim Country, I can see it making an incredible difference here.

Thoughts on Ron Santo's passing

Thursday night was a great night for me as a sports fan - it was very exciting watching the Sun Devils beat the Wildcats in football and those who watched know what a thrilling game it was. But like all Cub fans, I was quickly brought down to earth on Friday morning with the news of the passing of Ron Santo.

I've gotten used to going to funerals. I've been to at least 3 this year. It's the kind of thing you do out of respect as an area historian. And when I walk through Payson Pioneer Cemetery, which I've been doing lately taking pictures of all the tombstones, I see a lot of historic names that I recognize - some I talked to, some who passed before I got the chance. So it's not an unusual thing, but Santo's passing definitely struck me.

I did not personally know Ron Santo, though I did get his autograph once. But like most Cub fans, I sure as heck felt like I knew him. You couldn't help but listen to him and Pat Hughes call Cub games and not form a connection with the guy. To many non-Cub fans he's best known as the guy who yelled "oh no!" when outfielder Brant Brown dropped a fly ball in a key game late in the '98 season in Milwaukee. And yet while things just like that are why Cub fans loved him. He was genuine, a former player, a great one at that, who was every bit if not crazier a Cub fan than all of us.

I've listened to Cubs games on the internet for years. It's been extremely relaxing for me and I can get a lot of work done while listening. I'd always smile a lot while listening, no matter the score. You couldn't help but smile listening to Ron and Pat. It was just fun, and so much of that was Ron Santo.

When you look at the bigger picture on this man, he was amazing. Here was a guy who was diagnosed with diabetes when he was 18 years old, in a day and age when diabetes wasn't as common a thing. It was treated the same way then as it is now and he kept it to himself for years. There are some great stories about Santo's battle during his playing diabetes, but even more impressive was how he handled it in his later years. He had parts of both his legs amputated, and yet was a fixture at the ballpark in Spring Training. When I got his autograph it was at Phoenix Muni, he had been on crutches in the tunnel along the third base side before the game, talking up players, and of course signing for everyone who asked. You'd see a line snaking down the aisles when he was in the press box at the ballpark, and after a while they had to cut it off for Ronnie's sake so he could save some energy to do the game.

Santo was heartbroken when did not get into the Hall of Fame a few years ago and his son's documentary, This Old Cub, provides a powerful view of that and Santo's life. Cub fans I think were equally heartbroken - they held off on printing Cubs media guides that year until after the announcement - folks just thought that surely he and Ryno would make and it would be a heckuva Cub celebration at Cooperstown that year.

So that's my taken on Santo, and I'll be watching his funeral come Friday on WGN. That's must see TV in my book and I'm sure I'll make an extra effort to catch all of opening day at Wrigley this year. I remember how powerful it was in '98 after Harry had died and how moving it was when they retired Ron's jersey a few years ago. I'm sure it'll be the same come April.

ASU In Payson

This past week Arizona State University made an announcement regarding plans to build a college in Payson. While this is an important step, area locals, particularly potential sellers, should be aware of how different the coverage of this was in Payson and Phoenix.

The Payson Roundup’s headline on Friday September 24 was: ASU, Payson sign agreement for college here. This was front page news in Payson, and the article stated that an official announcement was forthcoming by ASU. The Arizona Republic had a much different slant. Their article on Tuesday September 28 had the headline of: Arizona State University, Payson to consider college site. While it briefly made the front page of their website, it was not at the top. Local news stations did not lead the 5 and 6 o’clock telecasts with the story as people like myself had hoped. In other words, it wasn’t all that big of news for Phoenix. The wording in the story was even softer. “ASU and Payson officials are announcing today that they have signed an agreement to analyze and consider locating a college in the Rim Country town.” That’s not exactly the sounds of a done deal.

It is also worth noting, that even if you view things more positively than the above, there are still some major hurdles. All along there has been a quiet murmur that state funding could jeopardize ASU coming here. Unfortunately, there are still state budget problems. When the legislature reconvenes in January, they will likely face a fiscal 2012 budget deficit north of $500 million. It will likely be a Republican legislature and Republican governor and traditionally in Arizona this group has not exactly shown passion for funding education. The guess here is that Payson officials will once again have to do some scrambling to hold this deal together.

There is also the federal dynamic. A key part of this plan is getting the federal government to move quickly with the forest service land that would be used for the campus. While I think the forest service is genuinely dedicated to making this a quick process, they are not going to be the ones with the final say. Unfortunately all it would take is a congressman from another state who wants to bring some pork home to his people, to jerk around with such a deal, thus delaying things.

This is not to say that I think a campus won’t happen. I believe it will. There’s still a chance it won’t be ASU and I think a more realistic time frame is fall of 2014 or fall of 2015. I still believe that Rim Country is going in a very positive direction. We are making strides on a number of fronts and we are still in some of the most scenic country in the world. But I don’t think we’re going to get a significant recovery boost from the college over the next year or two. Long term I think we are still a good investment and it makes sense for those who want to be here long term, to buy now. There are always going to be factors on all sides that make it difficult to judge when the “bottom” is, but we have had a significant enough drop already where even if there is more to go, I don’t think it will be catastrophic. At least I certainly hope so. 

Rim Country is home to a variety of wonders including Tonto Natural Bridge State Park, the Highline Trail, numerous great hiking trails and fishing spots, and too many other things to list here.

Updated Payson Real Estate Information

We're nearing the end of September so we're starting to get a feel for numbers in the Payson real estate market. Right now there have been 21 residential closes in Payson itself. The average sale price has been $239,660. Eight of those sales have been foreclosures which fits the rate we've been seeing of roughly 30-40% of sales being foreclosures.

The highest price sale was $800,000 for a home in Rim Club, but a closer shows that this was not a standard sale. As has been the case lately with higher end homes, this was sold via exchange. The next highest price obtained for a Payson area home was $700,000 for a 5,279 square foot home in the luxury Chaparral Pines community. The lowest price Payson home sale? $59,500 for a fixer upper that was under 800 square feet on nearly a half acre in the heart of Payson.

Need more Payson real estate information. Clink on this link: Payson Real Estate. Search for listings and get other real estate information, including the latest edition of the Zane Grey Country Times.

If Cubs Pass on Sandberg, D'Backs should hire him

An interesting situation is playing out in Chicago right now. The Chicago Cubs, after playing dead for much of the year, are playing some pretty good baseball under interim manager Mike Quade. This is further complicating an already challenging managerial situation for 2011.

For the past few years Cub legend Ryne Sandberg has worked his way from the ground up, starting by managing the Cubs' A ball team in Peoria. He is now managing the Iowa Cubs and by many accounts, Sandberg's teams have overachieved. He would seem to be THE candidate to manage the Cubs in 2011, and yet for some reason the Cubs seem a bit slow on the trigger. Maybe it's because GM Jim Hendry feels he HAS to win in 2011, or the fear that the situation seems so perfect, that it's got to be the wrong move. Whatever the case, Ryne Sandberg does not seem the surefire pick to manage the Cubs in 2011, which brings me to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Diamondbacks have been an enigmatic young team for years now, with quite a managerial merry go round occurring. Obviously, they have to settle on a GM before finding a manager, but with the jury out on interim manager Kirk Gibson, it's clear that they will need to do some searching. And yet, if the Cubs pass on Sandberg, the decision for the Diamondbacks should be an easy one - hire Ryne Sandberg.

First of all, the man has credentials. He's worked his way through the minor leagues and should have a good feel of what an organization needs to do at all levels to create success at the big league level. The Diamondbacks have not seemed to have someone with that know how since their first manager, Buck Showalter. The Diamondbacks need to create "the Diamondbacks way" of doing things, and Sandberg is just the guy. He's a Hall of Famer, someone who commands respect. He knows how to work well with young players, another key that fits the Diamondbacks.

On other levels, he works as well. He's lived in the Phoenix area much of his life, so obviously it's an area he's comfortable with and which he likes. The Diamondbacks have also had trouble converting lifelong Cub fans like myself. Sandberg would help immensely. Would I pay more attention to the Diamondbacks and be more likely to go to a game with Sandberg managing? Absolutely. He's the perfect guy to help turn the tide once and for all. Maybe he brings along another Cub or two - say Greg Maddux, to help. (Maddux incidentally has worked throughout the Cubs system this year in a freelance role and the Diamondbacks would be extremely lucky to have him if they could.)

Give Sandberg a five year contract, let him overhaul the organization's mindset with the plans being to be a much better team in years 3 through 5, which will also give more time for the lingering remnants of contracts from the Colangelo era to go away. In the meantime, Ryno should be able to capture fans' imagination and bring a fresh feel to the team and hopefully help youngsters like Stephen Drew and Justin Upton better develop. I'm guessing this team overachieves under Sandberg early on, and develops into a long term contender, which is exactly what this franchise needs to do right now.

Of course, this could all end up being a moot point. Sandberg could end up being hired by the Cubs, at which point the Diamondbacks might be well served to look at another Cub, interim manager Mike Quade. Quade is a baseball lifer who is worth consideration.

New listing in Hunter Creek

New listing in Hunter Creek, just outside of Christopher Creek. 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom cabin with 1,860 square feet for $349,900.

Payson Weather

Major downpour right now in Payson. However once it clears, I'm sure it'll be a beautiful day to show Payson real estate.

Homes Will Sell If Priced Right

Here's a link to a USA Today article about home pricing. This definitely applies to Payson real estate. We are seeing a price based market.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2010-07-29-homeprices29_CV_N.htm

Beware of stop payment fees on checks

Here's a link to a Yahoo article about stop payment fees.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stop-Payment-Now-Stop-It-nytimes-185872181.html?x=0&.v=1

Fire Restrictions Lifted

Fire restrictions in Tonto National Forest have been lifted. Beautiful weather in Payson, Arizona right now. A perfect time to look at Payson real estate.

A Temporary Break from Spring

The clouds have moved in, dampening temperatures a little bit here though still being pleasant. For those of us who live up here, it is a good time of week. Wednesday is a great time to hit trails with less people up here. A day like today with stormy weather on the horizon, can create some absolutely beautiful scenery. Then again, it's much easier to hit the trails when you own some real estate in the Payson area.

Out Near Tonto Creek on a beautiful day

I was out by Tonto Creek at the Kohl's Ranch subdivision today with my real estate partner Carolyn Stanley. It was a beautiful day and a place with a lot of potential that we checked out.

Another week, more moisture

We've had another good set of storms this week, further saturating an already saturated soil. It should set up some beautiful weather for viewing Payson and Rim Country real estate over the next few months.

Snow Melting in Rim Country

In Payson itself there's only a patch of snow here and there left. A 1,000 feet higher where I live (6,000 feet elevation), I still have a fair amount of snow though it is on the icy side at this point. In my opinion it has been a good slow melt and it's becoming easier to access real estate in the outlying areas.

Update on ASU coming to Payson

Payson, ASU clear campus hurdles

Moonlight in the Snow

One of the wonderful things we've had in the Payson area this week are moonlit nights. These are terrific when you have a bunch of snow on the ground or in the trees like we do right now. There's just something about it that is really special.

Last week's storm totals

A rough summary of the recent storm up here:

• Over 9 inches of moisture (rain and snow) over six days where I live at 6,000 feet under the Rim.
• Over 11 inches of moisture (rain and snow) at Tonto Creek Fish Hatchery.
• Over 12 inches of moisture at the Colcord Lookout Tower.